When: Decision Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 2:00 p.m. ET; press conference 2:30 p.m. ET. Two-day meeting June 16–17.
The federal funds target range sits at 3.50 to 3.75 percent. The market broadly expects a hold, so the rate itself is not the event. This meeting carries an updated Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot, and it is the first projection meeting presided over by the new Fed chair.
Why It Matters
With easing odds thin and a hot inflation trend in the data, the dot plot is the signal — how many cuts the committee still pencils for the year, and whether any official now leans toward a hike. The press conference is where the new chair’s reaction function gets priced for the first time. A hawkish dot shift extends the rate-driven derating that began in early June; a dovish surprise is the cleaner catalyst for a relief rally. The decision lands two days before quarterly options expiration, which amplifies whatever it says.